LoL: Maryville University vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Maryville University’s Bo3 against Conviction in the North American Challengers League playoffs is priced at 0% YES on Polymarket, leaving the contract effectively at the floor on Polygon with USDC-settled conditional tokens. For a user, that means the market is not reflecting a live consensus on who wins the quarter-final, but rather the absence of active bidding after the match moved from its original slot. The settlement rule matters here: if the game is not completed, is tied, or drifts beyond the seven-day window without a winner, the contract resolves 50-50 rather than to either side.

The historical read is straightforward: these teams have been closely matched, and recent head-to-head results do not support a clean favourite. Maryville beat Conviction 2-1 in the playoffs on 20 May, while Conviction had taken a 2-1 win over Maryville in the group stage on 27 March, both in NACL Spring 2026. That pattern mirrors a series that has repeatedly gone the distance, so a near-zero price on one side is more likely to reflect market inactivity, execution risk, or uncertainty over the match state than a strong view on competitive strength.

The main catalysts are operational rather than tactical: confirmation the series is played, any change to the bracket schedule, and whether the result lands inside the seven-day settlement window. GosuGamers and Sofascore both list the playoff meeting on 20 May, but the market should be watched for official organiser updates if there is a postponement, feed issue, or venue delay. On Polymarket, those details decide whether conditional tokens settle to Maryville, Conviction, or split 50-50 if the match does not produce a timely winner.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.