LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **Karmine Corp at 100% YES** on this BO3, which means the contract is effectively trading as a completed win for KC rather than a live coin-flip on the result. Because the market settles on the match winner, and on-chain exposure is via **USDC on Polygon** through conditional tokens, the relevant question for holders is whether the official LEC result is published cleanly before the seven-day fallback rules matter.

Recent head-to-head results point the same way. Karmine Corp beat Team Heretics **2-0 in April 2026** in a BO3, and then won **2-0 again in Spring 2026**, after a more mixed 2024-25 run that included wins for both sides.[3][6][9][11] Across the logged meetings, KC have taken a slight overall edge in maps and series, so today’s maximum probability is consistent with the market leaning on that recent form rather than older, split results.[1][2][5]

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: official start time changes, any broadcast or schedule confirmation from the LEC, and whether the series is actually played to completion rather than interrupted or postponed. The contract’s 50-50 fallback matters only if the match is cancelled, tied, or delayed beyond seven days without a winner, while a started-but-incomplete series resolves by the organiser’s declared winner, so the operational risk is mostly around fixture integrity rather than competitive uncertainty.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.