LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas versus Vivo Keyd Stars Academy is currently priced at 0% YES on Polymarket, so the contract is effectively offering no on-chain probability that KaBuM! win the scheduled best-of-five. On Polygon, each share settles in USDC through conditional tokens, with the payout depending on the match result as defined by the event rules. For a trader, that means the market is not just asking who is stronger on paper, but whether the series is actually played and resolved inside the settlement window.

The clearest comparison is the 2026 Circuito Desafiante season table, where KaBuM! IDL have been the dominant side, finishing the group stage 9-0, while Vivo Keyd Stars Academy were 4-5 and much lower in the standings on Leaguepedia. That sort of gap usually makes a one-sided price understandable, but 0% is still extreme because it leaves little room for any schedule shift, administrative issue, or late roster complication. In previous BO5 playoff spots, even heavy favourites have traded above zero when the event was confirmed and the teams were both expected to field line-ups.

The main catalysts are straightforward: whether the upper-bracket final remains on the published May 26 slot, whether Riot/organiser channels confirm the bracket and start time, and whether either team posts roster or scheduling changes before then. Sofascore currently lists the match for 26 May at 20:00 UTC, while the Leaguepedia season page already reflects the playoff context and team records. If the fixture is moved, abandoned, or not completed within seven days of the scheduled date, settlement can change materially, so the relevant watchpoint is not only form but event execution.

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Methodology

We track LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.