Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **10% YES** for Execration to beat Mentality Monster in the TI Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier playoffs, with settlement routed through the usual USDC positions on Polygon and resolved via the conditional token outcome tied to the official match result. The market’s 50-50 fallback also matters here: if the series is never played, ends level, or slips more than seven days past the scheduled date without a winner, holders are not betting on a clean win/lose outcome at all.

That low price sits against a market backdrop that still leans towards Execration on other venues. Strafe’s match page shows users backing Execration at **81.3%** versus **18.7%** for Mentality Monster, while Scores24 notes the teams had **no prior head-to-head record**. Execration’s recent form listed there is modest, at **2 wins from their last 5**, but Mentality Monster are also only **3 from 5**, so the price looks more like a read on bracket risk, team strength and event context than on a clear historical mismatch.

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: official bracket updates, any rescheduled start time, and whether the lower-bracket quarter-final is actually completed within the settlement window. Because this is a BO3 in a double-elimination playoff setting, a delayed stream, server issue or bracket change can matter as much as in-game form; if the fixture is postponed beyond the seven-day limit, the market flips to the contract’s fallback rather than a standard winner resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.