Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **Execration vs Grind Back** at **100% YES** on the conditional token tied to the BO3 lower-bracket semifinal, so the contract is effectively assuming the series will resolve in Execration’s favour on Polygon with USDC-backed exposure unless the event path changes before settlement. The market’s wording matters here: it resolves to Execration only if they win the match, but falls back to 50-50 if the series is not played, is tied, or drifts beyond the seven-day settlement window without a winner. [1]

That price is easier to read when set against match-level context, because live Dota qualifiers can swing sharply on draft quality, map starts and bracket pressure rather than overall team reputation. External match trackers show the series was already live or recently played, with one feed listing Execration ahead 1-0 early in the BO3, while other fixtures pages place the same matchup in the June 22 regional qualifier schedule and mark it as a lower-bracket playoff game. [2][4][5] Comparable third-party betting pages also treated Execration as the market favourite before play, which helps explain why the contract could be pinned so hard if traders believe the series has a clean result path. [3][7][9]

For a Polymarket user, the key catalysts are operational rather than theoretical: official bracket updates, whether the game completes as a full BO3, and any schedule change that could push the match outside the seven-day window and force the fallback outcome. Because the market settles from the real-world result rather than scoreline noise, traders typically watch tournament admin updates, live broadcast status and whether the series is still active in the qualifier feed before assuming the current 100% pricing is final. [1][2][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.