Dota 2: Team Resilience vs OG (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

Team Resilience face OG in a best-of-three Dota 2 match during The International Group Stage on 14 August 2026 at 01:00 ET. The Polymarket contract currently trades at 100% implied probability for Team Resilience victory, reflecting either overwhelming confidence in their superiority or a liquidity constraint that has collapsed the spread. Settlement occurs via conditional tokens on Polygon, with USDC collateral backing both YES and NO positions; the 100% reading suggests minimal counterparty appetite for backing OG at any price.

Historical precedent matters here. OG won The International twice (2018 and 2019) and remain a top-tier organisation with consistent roster depth and tournament experience. Team Resilience, by contrast, represents a newer or restructured squad with less established pedigree at Valve's flagship event. When prediction markets price a match at absolute extremes—particularly in esports where upsets occur regularly—the signal often reflects incomplete information rather than certainty. Group stage matches at The International have produced surprising results; the format's round-robin structure means early seeding carries less predictive weight than knockout stages.

Traders should monitor roster announcements and scrim results in the week preceding 14 August. Any last-minute substitutions, injury disclosures, or public performance data from warm-up matches could shift the underlying matchup dynamics. The settlement window closes at 12:10 UTC on 14 August, giving a narrow window post-match for resolution. Postponement rules apply a seven-day delay from the original 01:00 ET start; cancellation or a tie resolves the contract 50-50, introducing tail-risk scenarios that the current 100% price does not reflect.

Methodology

This page reviews Dota 2: Team Resilience vs OG (BO3) - The International Group Stage across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.