Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Team Refuser and Game Master are scheduled to contest a lower bracket quarterfinal in the International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs on 17 June at 12:00 AM ET. The match is a best-of-three format within a regional qualifier that determines which teams advance toward The International, Dota 2's premier annual championship. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 100% YES, implying near-certain confidence that the match will be played and resolved to a winner rather than cancelled, delayed beyond seven days, or ending in a draw. This pricing reflects the structural reliability of the qualifier format and the absence of recent disruptions to Chinese esports scheduling.

Historical precedent from prior International qualifiers and regional Dota 2 tournaments suggests that lower bracket matches at this stage rarely fail to conclude. Cancellations or extended delays typically occur only when organisers face infrastructure failures, visa complications, or force majeure events—none of which have been reported for this qualifier. The 100% probability also factors in the relatively low likelihood of a drawn series in Dota 2, where matches are decided by in-game victory conditions rather than time limits or scorecard judgements.

Traders should monitor official announcements from the qualifier organisers regarding any schedule changes, player roster updates, or technical issues in the days preceding 17 June. The settlement window closes at 10:00 AM ET on 17 June, creating a narrow window for match completion if delays occur. Any postponement notification or withdrawal by either team would immediately alter the contract's expected resolution pathway.

Methodology

We track Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.