Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine BO3 at **0% YES** on its USDC market, which means the contract is effectively trading as if a MOUZ win has no chance being assigned by the market today. The event itself is the The International Europe Closed Qualifier playoffs upper-bracket round 1 match, with the stated settlement rule tied to the on-chain conditional token outcome on Polygon rather than any broader tournament narrative.

That **0%** reading is hard to square with recent comparable meetings, because MOUZ have already beaten Yellow Submarine in best-of-three Dota 2 series this season, including a **2-0** result in October 2025, and the teams are again listed against each other for 22 June in qualifier coverage.[6][3] In practical terms, a Polymarket user looking at a near-zero price is usually seeing either a stale or thin order book, not a clean probability signal, especially in esports where one roster update, substitution or bracket change can move expectations sharply.

The main catalysts to watch are the match itself, any last-minute schedule changes, and whether the listed start time remains aligned across tournament and scoreboard pages; current listings put the game at **08:00 UTC** on 22 June, though one match tracker shows an earlier **04:20** time, which is the sort of discrepancy that can matter for settlement timing if a game is delayed or rescheduled.[2][3] For this contract, the decisive on-chain point is simple: if the series is played and MOUZ win, YES resolves; if Yellow Submarine win, NO resolves; if the match is not completed within the stated delay rules, the market can fall back to 50-50.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.