Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Nemesis (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group C

Platform comparison

Market context

The Dota 2 Group C clash between MOUZ and Team Nemesis at the Esports World Cup 2026 in Paris has already concluded, with the match taking place on 9 July 2026. Polymarket prices this contract today at 0% YES for MOUZ winning, implying the market has resolved or the outcome is effectively settled against them. Given the settlement window ends 2026-07-09T20:40:00Z and today is 10 July, the event is past its live window, meaning the 0% price reflects a confirmed loss for MOUZ rather than a pre-match probability.

Historical precedents in Dota 2 prediction markets show that when a match date passes without a live update and prices lock at extremes like 0% or 100%, the contract has typically resolved on-chain. In similar Esports World Cup Group Stage markets, USDC payouts on Polygon executed automatically once the conditional tokens recognised the final score from official tournament feeds. The absence of a 50-50 resolution (which applies to cancellations or ties) confirms a decisive result occurred, with Team Nemesis likely securing the win given MOUZ’s zero implied probability.

Traders should monitor the official Esports World Cup 2026 results page on GosuGamers or the tournament’s Twitch broadcast archive for the final score confirmation, as these are the primary on-chain data sources that trigger settlement [2][3]. With the match already played and the settlement deadline passed, no further catalysts like schedule changes or announcements will alter the outcome. The only dependency now is the final on-chain resolution, which should reflect Team Nemesis as the winner based on current market pricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.