Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 1% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 1% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 1% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 1% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 1% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: Enjoy (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) | 0% |
| Game Handicap: YB (-1.5) vs Enjoy (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing **Enjoy vs Yakult Brothers** at **0% YES**, so the contract is effectively saying there is no live expectation of an Enjoy win in this BO3.[2][7] The event is the Games of the Future Group C elimination match, which is listed to start at 11:00 UTC on 1 August, and the market will pay out via Polymarket’s usual USDC-settled conditional-token mechanics on Polygon, with a 50-50 outcome if the match is not played, ends level, or is left undecided beyond the window.[1][17][9]
That 0% reading is more understandable when set against the pre-match framing elsewhere: GosuGamers lists Yakult Brothers above Enjoy in the match-up, with Yakult Brothers at world rank 25 and Enjoy at 41, while other community and odds snapshots lean the same way.[3][5][6] In a best-of-three, the market is not asking who is the “better” roster on paper, but who wins the series under tournament conditions; if a team gains the match through a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover after the series has begun, Polymarket’s rules still resolve to the team awarded the win.[8][9]
For traders, the main catalysts are procedural rather than stylistic: whether the fixture starts on schedule, whether the tournament bracket remains intact after the earlier Group C results, and whether any last-minute cancellation or default changes the resolution path.[16][17] With the settlement window running to 2026-08-01T17:30:00Z, the key watchpoints are official match status updates, scoreboard completion, and any tournament admin notice about delay, abandonment, or rescheduling; if the series is not materially concluded by then, the contract’s fallback rules become decisive.[2][8][9]
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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