Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 90% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 90% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 80.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket has this **More markets** contract priced at **100% YES**, while the underlying series is a scheduled **best-of-two** between BetBoom Team and MOUZ, settled through conditional tokens in **USDC** on **Polygon** once the match result is known. At that level, the market is effectively treating the contract as certain to resolve in the affirmative, so the trading question is less about event direction and more about whether the listed market condition is still valid, already decided, or awaiting formal settlement.
For context, these teams have traded results over the last year, which is why a 100% market price stands out against the competitive history. MOUZ beat BetBoom Team **2-0** at ESL One Birmingham 2026 in March, but BetBoom replied with a **2-0** win in their earlier DreamLeague Season 28 meeting, and the broader head-to-head data shows several close series rather than a one-sided run. Comparable Dota 2 markets around rematches often move sharply on roster and format details, because a BO2 can settle as a 1-1 draw, a 2-0 sweep, or a 0-2 upset, and traders usually anchor on recent map-level form rather than raw team branding.
The main catalysts are straightforward: official line-up confirmations, any schedule slippage from tournament organisers, and whether the series actually starts as listed at **7:00 AM ET** before the settlement window closes at **17:00 UTC**. A late substitution or bracket change can matter more than historical head-to-heads, especially in Dota where stand-ins and role swaps can materially affect drafting. Recent match listings and results pages still show BetBoom and MOUZ active in the same event cycle, but the practical risk for a Polymarket user is mechanical as much as competitive: if the market has been fully resolved in the app, the on-chain outcome should follow the conditional token settlement rather than the live price.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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