Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
55% | 45% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
55% | 45% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 55% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Match Winner | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-3.5) vs FaZe (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FaZe (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) | 48% |
| Map 1 Winner | 46% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FaZe (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) | 35% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-3.5) vs FaZe (+3.5) | 35% |
| Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) | 27% |
| Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) | 27% |
Market context
The Esports World Cup Upper bracket semifinal 2 pits Legacy against FaZe in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match scheduled for 13 August at 1:00 PM ET. Polymarket currently prices Legacy's victory at 47%, implying roughly even odds between the two rosters. The conditional token structure on Polygon means traders holding YES tokens receive full settlement value if Legacy advance, whilst NO holders profit if FaZe take the series. Settlement occurs at 23:00 UTC on the scheduled date, allowing a full day window for the match to conclude.
FaZe enters as the higher-ranked squad in competitive Counter-Strike, with recent LAN placements and roster stability favouring their chances in high-pressure tournaments. Legacy, conversely, represents a younger or less-established roster attempting an upset run through the bracket. Historical precedent suggests that when Polymarket prices such matchups near 50-50, the market has typically absorbed available information about recent form, head-to-head records, and player availability. The 47% probability for Legacy reflects genuine uncertainty rather than a consensus underdog narrative.
Traders should monitor team announcements regarding player availability or last-minute roster changes through 12 August, as substitutions or illness can shift match dynamics significantly. The Esports World Cup operates on a published schedule with minimal delays; however, technical issues during broadcast or server problems could trigger the 7-day extension clause. Confirmation of both teams' final lineups and any official tournament updates should be tracked via ESL or the event's official channels in the 24 hours preceding the match.
Methodology
This page reviews Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FaZe (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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