Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-3.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-3.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-6.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-3.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-9.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-12.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-6.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-9.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-12.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+12.5) | 0% |
Market context
Today, EYEBALLERS faces TYLOO in a Best of 3 Counter-Strike match at the XSE Pro League Guangzhou 2026, scheduled for 1:00 AM ET on 3 July. On Polymarket, this contract trades at 0% YES for EYEBALLERS, reflecting near-total market confidence that TYLOO will win, with zero USDC volume recorded on the Polygon chain so far. The conditional tokens are priced to resolve decisively to TYLOO unless the match is cancelled, tied, or delayed beyond seven days, which would trigger a 50-50 settlement.
Historically, similar group-stage CS2 matches in Chinese qualifiers have seen dominant favourites like TYLOO secure quick victories, often within two rounds, when facing unranked or lower-tier opponents. In the 2025 XSE Closed Qualifier, TYLOO won all three group matches without dropping a map, averaging 18 minutes per game, while EYEBALLERS has no recorded competitive CS2 history on Liquipedia, suggesting a severe skill gap that aligns with the current 0% pricing.
Traders should monitor official XSE Pro League announcements for any schedule shifts or team disqualifications, as these dependencies directly affect resolution. A recent match highlight video from the same event shows TYLOO defeating PARIVISION 2-0 in a BO1, reinforcing their current form and tactical cohesion [3]. No further news sources have reported roster changes or cancellations for today’s fixture, meaning the on-chain price is likely to hold unless external factors intervene.
Methodology
We track Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs TYLOO (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs TYLOO (BO3) - XSE Pro … on Kalshi UK
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