Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: EAC (-1.5) vs Black Phoenix (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 51% |
| Map 1 Winner | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Esport Academy Copenhagen (-6.5) vs Black Phoenix (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Black Phoenix (-3.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Esport Academy Copenhagen (-3.5) vs Black Phoenix (+3.5) | 49% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: Black Phoenix (-1.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Black Phoenix (-3.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Esport Academy Copenhagen (-6.5) vs Black Phoenix (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Esport Academy Copenhagen (-3.5) vs Black Phoenix (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Esport Academy Copenhagen (-9.5) vs Black Phoenix (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 0% |
Market context
Esport Academy Copenhagen face Black Phoenix in a Counter-Strike best-of-three match within the CCT Europe Series #5 group stage, scheduled for 24 July at 10:00 AM ET. The Polymarket contract currently trades at 50 cents on the dollar, reflecting genuine uncertainty between the two rosters. Settlement hinges on a decisive result by 20:00 UTC on the settlement date; any cancellation, tie, or seven-day delay without resolution triggers a null outcome.
Danish academy-tier teams have shown inconsistent performance across CCT Europe iterations, with Esport Academy Copenhagen's prior showings marked by narrow defeats against established regional opposition. Black Phoenix, operating from a similar competitive tier, lacks extensive recent tournament documentation that would establish clear form trajectories. The 50-50 pricing reflects this symmetry—neither squad commands obvious favourability based on publicly available recent results or roster stability metrics.
Traders should monitor the official CCT Europe fixture schedule for any postponements, which would reset the seven-day clock and extend the settlement window. Roster changes announced between now and match day could shift conditional token valuations, particularly if either team fields stand-in players. The timing at 10:00 AM ET places the match during European morning hours, potentially affecting broadcast coverage and liquidity patterns on the Polygon-based contract. Any official CCT communications regarding group stage seeding or playoff implications may also influence pre-match trading activity in the hours preceding the fixture.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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