Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Butterfly (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this ARCRED–Butterfly BO3 priced at **10% YES**, which is a low market view for ARCRED winning the match on Polygon with USDC-settled conditional tokens. The contract resolves on the match winner, but if it is cancelled, tied, or left undecided beyond seven days, it falls to **50-50** rather than a team payout, so the current price is really a blend of match strength and event-completion risk.

Comparable NODWIN Clutch Series listings suggest traders often treat these lower-tier CS2 playoff contracts as execution-sensitive as much as form-driven. Liquipedia shows NODWIN Clutch Series #9 used a Swiss format with all matches played as BO3, while current match trackers list this ARCRED–Butterfly playoff as scheduled for 3 August 2026 at 14:00 UTC, with live statistics not yet available. That matters because BO3s reduce upset randomness relative to one-map games, but they also leave room for swings if a map is overturned by veto, disconnects, or a forfeit-style finish.

For traders, the main catalysts are whether the fixture actually starts on time, whether an official stream or bracket update confirms the pairing, and whether either team fields a full roster at the listed start time. Sofascore and related match pages currently show the game as scheduled, while the market’s own settlement window runs until 20:00 UTC, leaving only a short period for a formal result before the fallback mechanics become relevant. The same kind of market on Robinhood shows Butterfly priced above ARCRED, which is consistent with the low 10% Polymarket read on ARCRED but still leaves the door open to a late schedule change or a long, three-map match.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Butterfly (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.