Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

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Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains the world's most critical chokepoint for energy transport, with roughly one-fifth of global petroleum passing through its 21-mile width daily. This market settles if IMF Portwatch records a single day where ship transits meet or exceed a specified threshold before 31 May 2026. On Polymarket, the contract currently trades at 9% YES, implying traders assess a low probability of hitting that volume target on any given day across an 18-month window. The resolution hinges entirely on IMF Portwatch's published daily arrival figures—a granular dataset that captures container, tanker, bulk, and general cargo vessels but excludes any transits unreported by the institution.

Historical transit volumes through Hormuz average 80–100 ships daily under normal conditions, though this figure fluctuates with seasonal demand, geopolitical tensions, and maintenance schedules at regional ports. The 2022 energy crisis and subsequent volatility demonstrated how quickly transit patterns can shift; however, sustained disruptions severe enough to suppress daily arrivals significantly below baseline remain rare. The low implied probability reflects the market's assessment that whatever threshold this contract specifies likely sits well above typical daily traffic, making the YES outcome contingent on an unusual surge rather than ordinary operations.

Traders monitoring this contract should track announcements from Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps regarding strait operations, OPEC production decisions affecting export volumes, and scheduled maintenance windows at major Gulf ports including Jebel Ali and Fujairah. Recent geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea have already redirected some shipping away from Suez towards the longer Cape route, potentially concentrating Hormuz traffic; conversely, any escalation directly affecting the strait itself would be the primary catalyst reshaping settlement odds materially.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.