Will Anthropic’s valuation hit 2027 by December 31?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic's private valuation reaching a specific threshold by year-end 2026 is being priced at 8% on Polymarket, where traders are settling positions in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens that expire 1 January 2027. The resolution hinges on Nasdaq Private Market's daily NPM Price feed, which publishes valuations for trading days only at 1:00 PM ET the following calendar day. This creates a hard data dependency: if NPM hasn't published complete coverage by the settlement window's close, the market may extend through 4 January 2027 to capture all necessary pricing.

Private market valuations in the generative AI sector have historically moved in discrete jumps tied to funding rounds rather than continuous appreciation. Anthropic's last reported valuation came from its Series C in May 2024 at $5.0bn, followed by a $2bn funding commitment announced in September 2024 that suggested a $20bn valuation. Comparable firms like OpenAI and xAI have seen valuations shift dramatically between rounds—OpenAI moved from $29bn to $80bn+ within months—but these changes crystallise only when new capital is deployed. The 8% probability reflects scepticism that NPM will record a new valuation milestone before year-end without a formal funding announcement.

Traders should monitor announcements of Series D funding, strategic partnerships, or acquisition interest, as these typically precede NPM valuation updates. Recent reporting on AI funding trends and Anthropic's product roadmap will signal whether management is pursuing capital raises. The timing constraint is material: NPM updates lag actual deal closure, so any funding round announced in November or December 2026 might not settle into NPM's price feed until 2027, potentially leaving the market unresolved within its original window.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.