What price will Ethereum hit on May 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Ethereum’s price on the settlement timestamp is being priced by Polymarket at 0% YES, so the market is effectively saying the contract is already resolved against the named outcome. On Polymarket, traders post USDC on Polygon and the contract pays via conditional tokens at settlement, so the live price reflects where marginal money sits rather than any judgement on Ethereum’s fundamentals. With the window ending at 04:00 UTC on 23 May, the relevant question is simply where ETH was at the close of the reference period, not where it may trade later in the day.

Recent reference points place ETH in a tight band around the low $2,100s, which helps explain why nearby strike-style markets have gravitated to the $2,100-$2,200 area. CoinCodex puts ETH at about $2,125.74 on 22 May, Binance’s model shows $2,120.93 for 22 May, and Changelly’s forecast has it at $2,121.82 on 22 May. Those are model outputs rather than settlement prices, but they frame why a single-day move of a few per cent can determine whether the contract lands inside or outside the targeted range.

For traders, the main catalysts are the same ones that move ETH intraday: spot ETF flow headlines, broader crypto risk appetite, and any macro data or Fed commentary that shifts dollar and rates expectations. There is no protocol-level Ethereum upgrade scheduled for the next few hours in the supplied sources, so the contract is more likely to be driven by market-wide flows than by chain-specific news. Live ETH references from exchanges and benchmark feeds, plus any late US macro releases, matter more here than longer-range price calls.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.