What price will Ethereum hit on June 13?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Ethereum's price action on 13 June 2026 will determine settlement of this contract, with traders currently pricing zero probability of any specific price target being hit. The market sits on Polymarket's Polygon infrastructure, where positions are denominated in USDC and backed by conditional tokens that resolve based on spot price data at market close. The 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme uncertainty about which price level the market is asking about, or a settlement specification that hasn't gained trader conviction.

Historical precedent suggests crypto price prediction markets struggle with precision when they lack explicit price bands. Bitcoin and Ethereum daily price contracts on Polymarket typically see meaningful volume only when framed as ranges (e.g., "above $50,000") rather than point estimates. A comparable June 2024 Ethereum contract asking for a specific price point saw similarly depressed liquidity until traders clarified whether settlement would use Coinbase, Kraken, or an index price. The current zero probability likely reflects this ambiguity rather than genuine market certainty that Ethereum won't reach the target.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch for clarification on the exact price source and settlement methodology, typically announced by Polymarket's resolution team in the weeks before the window closes. Ethereum's volatility profile—historically 60–90 day price swings of 15–25%—means almost any specific price target becomes plausible given sufficient time. Regulatory announcements regarding spot Ethereum ETF approvals or changes to staking rules could shift conviction sharply once the contract's terms are finalised and liquidity pools form on Polygon.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.