What price will Bitcoin hit on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price on 31 May 2026 will be determined by spot market rates across major exchanges. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% implied probability, meaning traders have assigned negligible odds to any specific price outcome settling within the May 31 window. The contract resolves based on closing prices reported by major exchanges, with settlement occurring on 1 June 2026. On Polygon, this conditional token pair trades against USDC, allowing traders to hedge or speculate on Bitcoin's trajectory across the next eighteen months without taking direct custody of the asset.

Historical Bitcoin price movements show volatility clustering around macroeconomic events and regulatory announcements. In May 2021, Bitcoin fell from $58,000 to $30,000 following Chinese mining restrictions and Elon Musk's Tesla reversal. By contrast, May 2023 saw relatively stable consolidation between $26,000 and $28,000 as markets digested banking sector stress. The current 0% probability reflects genuine uncertainty about which price level will prove most likely by mid-2026, rather than consensus that Bitcoin will avoid the market entirely.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Federal Reserve policy decisions, which typically drive risk-asset repricing. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows—particularly from BlackRock's iShares offering—remain a key volume driver. Regulatory developments in the US and EU, scheduled for 2025-2026, could shift volatility expectations materially. Institutional adoption announcements and macroeconomic inflation data releases will likely prove more predictive than short-term technical levels.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.