What price will Bitcoin hit on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on 25 May 2026 will determine settlement of this contract, with traders on Polymarket currently pricing the YES outcome at 0%, suggesting the market views a specific price target as highly unlikely within that 24-hour window. The contract settles against USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, meaning traders holding YES positions would need Bitcoin to reach the specified price level—though the exact threshold isn't stated in the market description—for their positions to resolve affirmatively.

Historical precedent shows Bitcoin rarely achieves outsized single-day moves without major catalysts. During 2021's bull run, daily swings exceeded 10% on roughly 5–10 occasions annually, typically tied to regulatory announcements or macroeconomic shocks. The 0% probability reflects either an extremely high price target relative to current spot, or conversely, a floor price so low that traders assess near-zero likelihood of Bitcoin trading below it on that specific date. Comparable Polymarket contracts on Bitcoin price levels have shown that extreme probabilities often persist when the target sits multiple standard deviations from consensus price expectations.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Federal Reserve communications and inflation data releases scheduled near May 2026, as these historically influence risk-asset sentiment. Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets has strengthened since 2020, making S&P 500 volatility a secondary indicator. Additionally, any major cryptocurrency regulatory developments—particularly from the SEC or Treasury—could shift implied volatility substantially, though the current 0% pricing suggests the market has already priced in most plausible scenarios for that settlement window.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.