What price will Bitcoin hit on June 7?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on 7 June 2026 will determine settlement of this contract, with traders currently pricing zero probability of any specific price level being reached on that date. The Polymarket interface displays this as a binary conditional token pair settled in USDC on Polygon, where the contract's value reflects collective expectations about Bitcoin's trading range during a single calendar day roughly eighteen months forward. At present, the crowd has assigned negligible odds to the event occurring, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about Bitcoin's behaviour at that distant date or a structural issue with how the market frames the question itself.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance for pricing single-day price targets two years out. Bitcoin's daily ranges have varied dramatically across market cycles—from sub-$500 moves during consolidation phases to multi-thousand-dollar swings during volatility spikes. The 2021 bull run saw days where Bitcoin moved $5,000 or more, whilst bear markets have produced similarly outsized single-day moves. Without knowing which price level the contract specifies, traders cannot calibrate whether the target sits within plausible daily volatility or represents an outlier scenario. The 0% probability reading suggests the market either lacks clarity on the settlement terms or views the specified price as effectively unreachable under normal market conditions.

Catalysts shaping Bitcoin's trajectory through mid-2026 include regulatory developments in major jurisdictions, macroeconomic policy shifts, and institutional adoption trends. The US election cycle in November 2024 and subsequent policy implementation will influence cryptocurrency sentiment through 2025 and into 2026. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows, which accelerated following January 2024 approvals, will continue affecting price discovery mechanisms. Traders monitoring this contract should track Federal Reserve policy signals, major corporate treasury announcements, and any significant cryptocurrency exchange or custody developments that might alter volatility expectations.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.