What price will Bitcoin hit on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on 13 June 2026 will determine settlement of this contract, with the 1% YES probability on Polymarket reflecting traders' assessment that BTC will reach an unspecified target level on that specific date. The contract trades on Polygon via USDC-denominated conditional tokens, settling through Polymarket's oracle mechanism once the settlement window closes on 14 June at 04:00 UTC. Current pricing suggests the market assigns minimal likelihood to whatever price threshold defines a YES outcome—a reflection of how narrowly defined single-day price targets typically trade across crypto derivatives markets.

Historical precedent shows Bitcoin's daily price ranges rarely exceed 15–20% in normal market conditions, constraining the probability space for extreme moves. The 2021–2022 bear market and subsequent recovery cycles demonstrate that even during high-volatility periods, hitting predetermined price levels on exact dates requires either scheduled catalyst alignment or unexpected macro shocks. Comparable single-day price-target contracts on major exchanges have consistently priced tail-event outcomes at 1–3% probability, suggesting Polymarket's current pricing reflects standard market consensus on execution risk.

Traders monitoring this contract should track macroeconomic data releases scheduled near mid-June 2026, Federal Reserve communications, and any major regulatory announcements affecting cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin's correlation with equity indices and Treasury yields has strengthened since 2023, making broader financial market volatility a key dependency. Spot and futures market liquidity on major exchanges will also determine whether sufficient volume exists to move price to any specified level on the settlement date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.