What price will Bitcoin hit on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on 11 August 2026 will determine settlement of this contract, with traders currently pricing zero probability of the event occurring—a reflection of the settlement window's specificity rather than any fundamental constraint. On Polymarket, positions are denominated in USDC and settled via Polygon's conditional token architecture, meaning the contract resolves YES only if Bitcoin trades at the specified price level during that calendar day. The 0% crowd probability suggests either the price target sits far outside reasonable expectations for that date, or market depth remains thin enough that no meaningful position has yet formed.

Historical precedent shows Bitcoin's daily price ranges have compressed and expanded dramatically across market cycles. During 2021's bull run, daily swings of $5,000–$10,000 were routine; in 2023's consolidation phase, daily volatility often stayed below $2,000. The August 2026 settlement window falls roughly 18 months forward from present, making medium-term macro conditions—regulatory clarity, institutional adoption rates, macroeconomic policy shifts—more predictive than short-term technicals. Comparable single-day price targets on Polymarket typically attract meaningful liquidity only when they align with round numbers or represent plausible daily ranges given recent volatility.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Federal Reserve policy announcements and major cryptocurrency regulation developments, particularly any US legislative movement on digital asset frameworks. Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets and risk sentiment remains a primary driver; equity market stress in summer 2026 could amplify volatility. Spot exchange inflows and outflows, visible on-chain, often precede significant price moves and warrant attention in the weeks preceding settlement.

Methodology

We track What price will Bitcoin hit on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.