What price will Bitcoin hit on June 8?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on 8 June 2026 will determine settlement of this contract, with traders currently pricing zero probability of any outcome occurring—a reflection of the market's extreme uncertainty about which specific price level the question targets. On Polymarket, this conditional token trades against USDC on Polygon, meaning settlement hinges on a verifiable Bitcoin price fix at a defined moment on that date, likely referencing a major exchange's closing price or a time-weighted average.

Historical precedent suggests Bitcoin's daily price ranges have typically fallen between 3–8% of spot price during calm market periods, though volatility spikes during regulatory announcements or macroeconomic shifts. The 0% crowd probability indicates either insufficient liquidity to establish a meaningful price, genuine disagreement over which price level the contract specifies, or traders' assessment that the settlement criteria remain ambiguous. Comparable single-day price targets on prediction markets have struggled to attract volume when the strike price isn't explicitly stated in the market description.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch for clarification on the exact price threshold being tested—whether it's a round number like $70,000 or a specific technical level. Federal Reserve communications, spot Bitcoin ETF flows, and geopolitical developments affecting risk appetite typically drive Bitcoin's directional bias weeks in advance. The June 2026 window falls outside major regulatory calendars, though any unexpected policy shifts from the US or EU could reshape volatility expectations and eventually shift the market's probability assessment from its current flat state.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.