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What price will Bitcoin hit on June 30?

Comparison of odds and platforms for "What price will Bitcoin hit on June 30?" — sourced live from the Polymarket order book, curated by Kalshi UK.

↓ 59,000 88% ↑ 60,000 48% ↓ 58,000 33% ↑ 61,000 10% Volume: $144K Liquidity: $233K Closes: 1 Jul 2026
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What price will Bitcoin hit on June 30?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 88% 12% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 88% 12% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
↓ 59,00088%
↑ 60,00048%
↓ 58,00033%
↑ 61,00010%
↓ 57,0009%
↑ 62,0003%
↓ 56,0003%
↓ 55,0001%
↓ 54,0001%
↑ 63,0001%
↓ 52,0000%
↑ 67,0000%
↑ 66,0000%
↑ 64,0000%
↓ 53,0000%
↑ 65,0000%

Market context

The What price will Bitcoin hit on June 30? prediction market currently prices this outcome at 88% YES. What price will Bitcoin hit on June 30?

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
James WilliamsJames WilliamsPrediction Market AnalystandDavid ParkDavid ParkSports Data Analyst

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