What price will Bitcoin hit on June 21?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES** today, which on its USDC-denominated, Polygon-based conditional-token rails means the market is assigning no value to Bitcoin printing the specified price level within the settlement window. In plain terms, traders are paying as if the June 21 strike will not be hit, even though the contract resolves off the referenced BTC index at the defined observation time rather than the broader day’s trading range.

That stance sits against a backdrop of relatively restrained near-term forecasts. CoinCodex and Binance both model Bitcoin in the mid-$60,000s around 21–22 June 2026, with CoinCodex putting 21 June at about $64,675 and Binance’s daily projection showing roughly $64,053 on 21 June[1][6]. Changelly’s June 2026 table similarly clusters BTC around $63,905 on 21 June, which is close to the current pricing band in those models[2]. Comparable venue listings also show multiple strike buckets around $63,900–$64,299, underlining how tightly this event is framed around a narrow spot range rather than a directional moonshot[3][8].

For traders, the key catalysts are the usual short-dated crypto drivers: ETF flow data, macro releases, and any move in rate-cut expectations, all of which can nudge BTC through a strike late in the session. Because the settlement check uses a specific timestamped reference price, liquidity around the closing window matters as much as the day’s intraday move. Scheduled Bitcoin-network or ETF-related announcements can matter too, but the immediate dependency is the benchmark print used by the market’s oracle-style resolution mechanism[8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.