What price will Bitcoin hit August 10-16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's price action during the week of 10–16 August 2026 will determine whether this contract settles YES. Polymarket currently prices this binary at 0%, reflecting either extreme confidence in a narrow price band or minimal trading activity on this specific weekly window. The contract settles on Polygon via USDC-denominated conditional tokens, meaning traders are locking capital into a derivative that isolates a single seven-day period roughly 18 months forward. At present, the market is pricing in either no material volatility expectation or insufficient liquidity to establish a meaningful bid-ask spread.

Historical Bitcoin weekly ranges offer context for interpreting this probability. During 2021–2022, weekly moves of 10–15% were routine; in calmer periods, Bitcoin often traded within 5–8% bands. The August 2026 settlement window falls outside any known catalyst cluster—no major conference, regulatory deadline, or options expiry aligns with that specific week based on current schedules. Comparable weekly-window contracts on Polymarket have typically attracted traders only when anchored to known events: Fed announcements, spot ETF flows, or geopolitical shocks.

Traders monitoring this contract should track macroeconomic data releases scheduled for early August 2026, any unexpected regulatory filings from major exchanges, and Bitcoin's positioning in quarterly futures markets. Funding rates and open interest on perpetual swaps will signal whether institutional positioning is building into that week. The 0% probability suggests either the market expects Bitcoin to remain within a tightly defined range or that this contract remains too illiquid to price efficiently.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.