Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 passed the House in July 2025 but remains stalled in the Senate Banking Committee, leaving its 2026 signing probability at 39% on Polymarket. Traders viewing this contract on Polygon via USDC conditional tokens see the price reflect the uncertainty of Senate action rather than House approval alone. Unlike previous fragmented state-level efforts like California’s 2023 Digital Financial Assets Law, this federal bill seeks to definitively split jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC, granting the latter exclusive oversight over digital commodities like Bitcoin and Ethereum [1][4].

Historical precedents suggest that bipartisan crypto bills often face prolonged Senate deliberation before enactment. The GENIUS Act, passed shortly before the CLARITY Act, cleared both chambers relatively quickly, yet the CLARITY Act’s path is less certain as the Senate has released its own discussion draft, the Responsible Financial Innovation Act of 2025, which could supersede or delay the House version [5]. This legislative friction mirrors the slow progress of earlier market structure bills, where committee disagreements on regulatory scope frequently extended timelines beyond initial projections.

Key catalysts for the next six months include the Senate Banking Committee’s scheduling of a vote on H.R.3633 and any public statements from key senators regarding the competing RFIA draft. Traders should monitor Congress.gov for committee reports and floor announcements, as a lack of movement by late 2026 would likely confirm a “No” outcome before the settlement window closes [2][5]. Recent reporting highlights that the Act mandates joint rulemaking by the SEC and CFTC, adding procedural complexity that could further delay final signing [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.