Bitcoin price on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this July 31 BTC/USDT noon ET Binance close at **0% YES**, which is essentially a view that the contract is already out of the money or that liquidity is treating a positive settlement as implausible. On Polygon, buyers and sellers are still exchanging USDC for conditional tokens, but at this price the market is signalling near-certainty on the **No** side rather than any meaningful appetite for a noon UTC close in the target range.

That reading sits against a 2026 Bitcoin tape that has been volatile but not detached from the low-60,000s: recent spot data shows BTC around **$62,000–$63,000**, with intraday ranges contained inside roughly a $600–$1,100 band in several snapshots.[1][4][7][12] Comparable prediction venues are also clustering around the low-to-mid $60,000s, with one market showing heavy volume in the **60,000–62,000** and **62,000–64,000** bins, and Robinhood pricing adjacent July 31 BTC contracts with major strike probabilities around **$63,000–$64,500**.[2][3] That makes a 0% Polymarket read stand out as a strong dislocation versus broader crypto market expectations.

For traders, the main catalysts are the usual Bitcoin microstructure drivers: spot-led moves on Binance into the US noon candle, any late-session macro surprise, and fund-flow or ETF headlines that can shift BTC within minutes. Binance’s settlement rule is exacting, because the outcome depends on the **1-minute candle close at 12:00 ET**, not a daily average, so a brief spike or wick around the fixing time can decide the market. With Bitcoin trading near the middle of a tight recent band, the practical focus is on whether liquidity, headline risk, or a sharp move in the final minutes can lift the closing print into a higher bracket.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.