Bitcoin above ___ on May 16?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market settles on Bitcoin's Binance BTC/USDT closing price at noon Eastern Time on 16 May 2026, a specific one-minute candle that will determine whether the contract resolves YES or NO. The 0% crowd probability reflects either an extremely high strike price relative to current Bitcoin valuations, or minimal liquidity and trader participation in this particular contract. On Polymarket, the market operates as conditional tokens on Polygon, with USDC collateral backing both YES and NO positions; the current pricing suggests traders assess the specified price level as effectively unreachable under baseline scenarios.

Historical Bitcoin price action provides limited direct precedent for predicting noon-specific closes eighteen months forward, though intraday volatility at major exchanges typically ranges 1–3% during regular trading hours. Bitcoin's behaviour around macroeconomic announcements, Federal Reserve communications, and regulatory developments has historically driven larger moves, though these occur unpredictably. The May 2026 window falls outside any announced major event cycle, reducing near-term catalysts for extreme price movements.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Bitcoin's medium-term trend trajectory, any significant shifts in institutional adoption or regulatory stance, and Binance's operational status. Spot price discovery on Binance BTC/USDT remains sensitive to broader cryptocurrency market sentiment, leverage positioning, and macro risk-off events. The settlement mechanism's reliance on a single one-minute candle introduces execution risk; liquidity conditions at precisely noon ET on that date could affect the close price independently of broader market conditions.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin above ___ on May 16? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.