Bitcoin above ___ on May 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on Bitcoin's closing price on the Binance BTC/USDT pair at the 12:00 noon ET candle on 13 May 2026. The 100% implied probability reflects either an extremely high threshold price or a technical certainty baked into the market structure itself. Traders on Polymarket are pricing this through conditional tokens on Polygon, with USDC collateral backing positions. The contract's current valuation suggests the market has already priced in a near-certain outcome, though the specific price threshold remains the critical variable determining whether this resolves affirmatively.

Historical precedent shows that Bitcoin's intraday volatility at fixed timestamps can be substantial. Over the past two years, single-minute candles at noon ET have exhibited swings of 2–4% during normal market conditions, and considerably more during periods of macroeconomic data releases or regulatory announcements. The 100% probability here likely indicates either a threshold so low that Bitcoin would need to collapse entirely to fail it, or a market with insufficient liquidity to price genuine uncertainty.

Traders should monitor Federal Reserve communications and US economic data scheduled near the resolution date, as these have historically driven Bitcoin's directional moves. Institutional flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have become material price drivers since their approval in January 2024, remain a secondary catalyst. Exchange rate movements in USDT pairs can also diverge slightly from broader Bitcoin price action, making Binance-specific liquidity conditions worth tracking in the final hours before the noon ET candle closes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.