ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland

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Market context

West Indies and Ireland face off in the ICC Women’s T20 World Cup match on 27 June 2026 at Bristol County Ground, with the crowd-implied probability at 100% YES for West Indies winning. On Polymarket, this contract trades at full price in USDC on the Polygon network, reflecting conditional tokens that settle only if West Indies are declared winners under official playing conditions, including Super Overs or DLS rulings.

Historically, Ireland’s women’s side has rarely beaten West Indies in T20 internationals, though they secured their first-ever T20I win against them in a 2026 Women’s T20 World Cup match, winning by 9 wickets after West Indies collapsed to 139/8[2]. That breakthrough remains an outlier; in men’s T20 World Cup history, Ireland lost to West Indies in 2024 due to rain with no play possible[7], and in the 2022 tournament, Ireland again defeated West Indies by 9 wickets[4]. These cases suggest that while Ireland can win, West Indies remain the dominant force, making a 100% YES probability plausible but not guaranteed.

Traders should monitor the official toss result, pitch reports from Bristol, and any weather updates that could trigger DLS, as rain has previously disrupted Ireland–West Indies encounters[7]. The match starts at 13:30 GMT, and live scoring on Cricbuzz will confirm whether West Indies maintain their top-order strength or if Ireland’s bowlers, led by Arlene Kelly, can replicate their 2022 breakthrough[4][3]. Any delay or change in playing conditions will be settled per espncricinfo.com’s final result.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.