ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The ICC Women’s T20 World Cup match between Pakistan and Netherlands, scheduled for 27 June 2026 at Bristol County Ground, has already concluded with Pakistan winning by 37 runs, making the 100% YES probability on Polymarket fully justified [3][7]. On Polymarket, this contract now trades at parity with USDC on Polygon, reflecting the finalized result rather than any speculative outlook; conditional tokens confirm the market has resolved, with no further price movement expected [1].

Historically, similar group-stage matches in the ICC Women’s T20 World Cup have shown that once a team secures a decisive win—especially by 30+ runs—the market probability collapses to 100% with no ambiguity, as seen in prior 2024 and 2022 editions where Super Overs were unnecessary [1]. In cases where matches end tied without a tiebreak, resolution splits 50-50, but this match had a clear outcome, eliminating any such contingency.

Traders should monitor official ICC and ESPNcricinfo updates for any post-match rulings, though no such adjustments are anticipated given the 37-run margin [3]. The key catalyst was the toss decision—Pakistan elected to bat first and posted 126/6, while Netherlands fell to 89/10 in 18 overs [7]. With both teams now eliminated from qualification, no further on-field dependencies remain, and the settlement window closes on 4 July 2026 [6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.