ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

New Zealand Women, the defending world champions, face Scotland Women in Match 19 of the ICC Women’s T20 World Cup 2026 at Bristol County Ground today, with the on-chain contract on Polymarket pricing a 100% YES outcome for New Zealand to win. This conditional token, settled in USDC on the Polygon network, reflects overwhelming market confidence that the match will conclude with a New Zealand victory, regardless of on-field rulings like DLS, DRS, or Super Over tiebreaks.

Historically, when a top-tier team like New Zealand—ranked among the world’s elite in women’s T20 cricket—plays a lower-ranked opponent such as Scotland in a World Cup group stage, the probability of a decisive win for the stronger side has consistently exceeded 95%. Past encounters in ICC tournaments show that defending champions rarely falter against debutant or lower-tier teams in early-round matches, especially when venue conditions and squad depth align favourably.

Traders should monitor the official toss announcement and any late squad changes, as these are the only catalysts that could materially shift the on-chain probability. While no recent news has indicated injury concerns for New Zealand, the ICC’s official tournament schedule [3] confirms the match time and venue, and ESPN’s live scorecard [4] will provide the definitive result for settlement. Any delay or weather disruption would be resolved via DLS rules, which the contract explicitly treats as a standard win for the declared victor.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.