July Inflation US - Monthly

Platform comparison

Market context

The one-month seasonally adjusted change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers in July 2026 will be published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 12 August 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% YES, suggesting traders see near-zero probability of a specific outcome threshold being met—though the market's conditional token structure on Polygon means the YES and NO sides are trading against each other in USDC, with settlement tied directly to the BLS release.

Historical monthly CPI changes offer context for interpreting this flat market. Between 2022 and 2024, month-on-month seasonally adjusted CPI movements typically ranged between −0.1% and +0.4%, with most readings clustering near +0.2% to +0.3%. The Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle and subsequent pause have stabilised inflation expectations, making extreme monthly swings less frequent than during 2021–2022. If the market is pricing zero probability for YES, traders are likely betting against an unusually large monthly increase or decrease—a reasonable stance given recent inflation stability, though the specific threshold for YES resolution remains critical to interpreting this probability.

Traders should monitor Federal Reserve communications and labour market data between now and mid-August, as wage growth and energy prices remain key CPI drivers. The Producer Price Index, released in early August, often signals directional pressure on consumer inflation. Any significant geopolitical disruption affecting oil markets or supply chains could shift expectations ahead of the final CPI print. The settlement window closes at 03:59 UTC on 12 August, giving traders roughly 8.5 hours after the official BLS release to adjust positions before conditional tokens resolve.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.