July Inflation US - Annual

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **July Inflation US - Annual** at **2% YES**, which on a USDC-settled, Polygon-based conditional token contract implies a very low crowd expectation that the BLS will print a July 2026 CPI year-on-year rate anywhere near that level. The market resolves against the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ unadjusted 12-month CPI change for July 2026, so the key question is not the monthly move itself but whether the year-on-year figure falls to the low single digits by the 12 August 2026 release.[15][17][19]

That pricing sits well below the recent run of realised inflation. The BLS reported 4.2% year-on-year CPI for May 2026, then 3.5% for June 2026 after a 0.4% monthly decline, while core CPI eased to 2.6% in June.[1][5][7] Private and Fed-linked nowcasts have pointed to further cooling in July, but still far above 2%: the Cleveland Fed’s inflation nowcasting tool was cited projecting headline inflation around 3.32%-3.49% for July, and other July prep notes clustered around 3.8%-3.9% annual CPI.[2][3][4][6][9]

For traders, the main catalysts are the final pre-release prints and any late revisions in inflation nowcasts, especially on energy, shelter, and services components that can move the annual base effect. The schedule itself matters because the contract cannot settle until the BLS report lands at 8:30 am ET on 12 August, and positioning will likely react to any fresh labour-market or supply-side data that shifts expectations for the July CPI path in the days before then.[12][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.