Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic suspended Claude Fable 5 access for US customers on 12 June 2026, three days after its public release, following a directive from the US government. The market asks whether the company will restore access by 2 July 2026—a window of roughly three weeks from suspension. Polymarket currently prices YES at 1%, reflecting trader consensus that restoration within this timeframe is highly unlikely. The conditional token structure on Polygon means positions settle in USDC once the outcome is determined, with the market's depth suggesting minimal conviction that Anthropic will reverse course quickly.

Government-mandated AI model suspensions remain rare in US regulatory history, making direct precedent scarce. The closest comparable case is the 2023 temporary restrictions on certain large language model capabilities following executive orders, though those involved voluntary compliance frameworks rather than outright suspension. The 1% probability implies traders view a government directive as functionally irreversible on a three-week timeline, absent extraordinary political or legal intervention. Historical patterns show that once US authorities issue such directives to major technology firms, reversal typically requires either legislative action, court orders, or formal policy reversal—processes that rarely conclude in weeks.

Traders monitoring this contract should track announcements from Anthropic's leadership regarding the suspension rationale, any legal challenges filed against the directive, and statements from relevant US government agencies. Congressional activity or executive branch clarifications on the underlying concern would represent material catalysts. The settlement date of 2 July 2026 falls before typical summer legislative recesses, though this offers limited window for policy reversal. Media coverage of the suspension's stated justification will inform whether restoration appears politically feasible within the timeframe.

Methodology

We track Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.