Bitcoin price on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's noon ET price on 31 May 2026 will be determined by the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at that specific timestamp. The market currently shows 0% probability for YES, suggesting traders expect the contract to resolve to NO—meaning either Binance data becomes unavailable, the price falls outside all defined brackets, or settlement encounters a technical failure. This is a precise, time-bound settlement tied to a single exchange's published candle data rather than a broader directional bet on Bitcoin's trajectory.

Historical precedent matters here. Bitcoin's volatility has ranged from sub-$20,000 to above $70,000 within recent market cycles, yet single-day noon closures rarely settle at bracket boundaries where rounding rules apply. The 0% YES probability reflects either extreme confidence in a NO resolution or thin liquidity in a contract requiring exact price-bracket alignment. Previous Polymarket Bitcoin contracts have shown that when settlement depends on precise exchange data at specific times, technical issues or data unavailability occasionally trigger NO outcomes, even when the underlying asset trades actively.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Binance's operational status through May 2026, particularly any maintenance windows affecting BTC/USDT data feeds. Regulatory developments affecting Binance's US operations, significant Bitcoin network events (such as halving cycles or major protocol upgrades), and macroeconomic announcements typically drive volatility that could push prices toward or away from specific brackets. The settlement window closes at 16:00 UTC on 31 May, giving traders a narrow window to verify the closing candle before conditional token resolution on Polygon.

Methodology

This page reviews Bitcoin price on May 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.