Bitcoin price on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's noon ET price on 25 May 2026 will be determined by the closing value of the BTC/USDT 1-minute candle on Binance at that specific moment. The market currently shows 0% implied probability for "Yes," suggesting traders have not yet priced in meaningful conviction around any particular price bracket, or the market lacks sufficient liquidity to establish a baseline. Settlement hinges on Binance's official candle data, with ties resolving to the higher bracket—a detail that matters when price action clusters near bracket boundaries.

Historical Bitcoin price volatility offers limited direct precedent for predicting a specific noon-hour close eighteen months forward. Intraday candle closes depend heavily on microstructure noise, order flow timing, and regional market hours overlap rather than directional conviction. A comparable reference point is the difficulty in forecasting single-day closes during major volatility events: even when macro catalysts are known, the precise minute-level settlement price remains difficult to pin down. The 0% probability likely reflects this inherent unpredictability rather than certainty that Bitcoin will trade outside all specified brackets.

Traders monitoring this contract should track regulatory announcements affecting spot trading venues, scheduled macroeconomic data releases, and Federal Reserve communications that typically influence Bitcoin's correlation with risk assets. The May 2026 window falls outside any announced Bitcoin halving or major protocol upgrade, reducing event-driven volatility anchors. Binance operational status and any potential trading halts would directly affect settlement mechanics, making exchange health a secondary dependency worth monitoring.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.