Bitcoin price on May 20?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin is set to be priced from Binance’s BTC/USDT 1-minute candle at 12:00 ET, with Polymarket settling the contract in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens. With the crowd-implied probability at 0% for YES, the market is effectively saying the noon Binance close is expected to miss every listed bracket. That is a very strong signal, but it also reflects how tightly this market is framed: the outcome depends on a single one-minute close, not the broader daily trend, so thin volatility around the timestamp can matter more than the headline price level.

Recent reference points show how fast Bitcoin has been moving around this part of the range. Fortune put BTC at $80,120.03 on 15 May, then $76,565.02 at 9:30 a.m. ET on 19 May, while Robinhood’s related event on 20 May had the 76,000–78,000 band as the leading outcome. That places the current contract in a zone where small moves can shift bracket probabilities sharply. SoFi’s history summary also notes that 2026 has already seen a wide span, from a January high near $97,860 to an early-February low around $60,074, which is useful context for reading how quickly sentiment can reset.

A trader watching this market should focus on the Binance spot tape into the 12:00 ET print, not just on broader crypto headlines. The key dependencies are whether BTC trades cleanly through the bracket boundaries in the final minutes and whether volatility spikes around U.S. morning liquidity. Any fresh macro move, exchange-specific flow, or ETF-related impulse can move the one-minute close, but without a sharp swing before noon ET, the contract should remain anchored to the prevailing mid-$70,000s band.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Bitcoin price on May 20? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.