Bitcoin price on June 23?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 23 June 2026 at noon Eastern Time, the final resolution price for this prediction market will be the closing value of the one-minute Binance candle for BTC/USDT. The market currently prices the chance of Bitcoin exceeding any meaningful threshold at 0% YES, reflecting a deep bearish consensus among traders on Polymarket. This contract settles on-chain using USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens determine the payout based solely on that specific Binance close.

Historically, Bitcoin has shown sharp volatility around mid-year dates, yet the current 0% probability aligns with a sustained downtrend from its October 2025 peak of $126,198.07 to roughly $63,975 today[1][3]. In June 2026, the price hovered near $72,145 before falling over $33,500 compared to the prior year, suggesting that the market has already priced in a prolonged period of weakness rather than an imminent reversal[1].

Traders should monitor upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and any potential regulatory announcements regarding cryptocurrency ETFs, as these catalysts often drive short-term price swings. Recent technical analysis on Binance indicates that Bitcoin is testing support near $63,994, with a minimum target of $70,332 and a potential maximum of $107,553, though current sentiment remains heavily skewed downward[2]. The next major Bitcoin halving is expected in 2028, meaning no supply shock is imminent to alter the current trajectory[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.