Bitcoin price on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is effectively assigning no weight to BTC/USDT finishing inside the specified Binance noon bracket on the settlement date. For a user holding USDC on Polygon, the relevant question is not Bitcoin’s broad trend but where the *12:00 ET 1-minute candle close* lands on Binance, because that single print determines whether the conditional tokens redeem for YES or NO.

That near-zero price sits against a Bitcoin tape that is still trading in the mid-$60,000s, with recent spot references around $64,000–$65,000 and daily closes in that zone across early August.[1][4][8][13][18] Comparable readings from the same month show BTC ending August 7 at about $64,878 on one data set and around $64,609 on another recent daily figure, which places the market near the middle of the broad August range rather than at an obvious bracket edge.[2][4] In practice, that matters because prediction markets can stay detached from the underlying unless traders see a realistic path to the exact settlement bin.

The main catalysts are straightforward: Binance spot volatility around the settlement hour, any macro headline that hits risk assets intraday, and crypto-specific flows that can move BTC by several hundred dollars in minutes. Traders should watch the scheduled ETF and derivatives calendar, liquidity around the U.S. morning session, and any late-day crypto news that could shift the noon ET candle; recent reporting has described Bitcoin as range-bound around $64,000–$65,000, with some forecasters still expecting an August trading band rather than a clean breakout.[20][14][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.