Bitcoin price on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is currently pricing this BTC 12:00 ET close contract at **0% YES**, so the market is effectively saying the chance of the Binance 1-minute candle close landing in a YES bracket is being treated as negligible. On Polymarket, traders are swapping **USDC** on **Polygon**, and each outcome is backed by conditional tokens that settle against the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at noon Eastern rather than a broader daily Bitcoin benchmark.[8]

That near-zero reading sits against a Bitcoin tape that is still active, not inert: recent live snapshots have placed BTC in the mid-$60,000s, with several sources showing prices around $64,500–$65,000 and a narrow intraday range roughly centred on that area.[3][4][13] Comparable daily data for early August 2026 also show closes in the same zone, including a reported August 8 trade-day close of $64,929.01, which illustrates how quickly this market can remain relevant even when the crowd-implied probability is flat.[2][3]

For a trader, the main catalysts are the usual ones that can move a noon ET Binance print: ETF flow headlines, macro data, sudden risk-off moves in equities or rates, and any exchange-specific volatility around liquidity or outages. Because the contract resolves to a single minute’s close, not an average, the last hour before settlement matters more than the broader day; even a short-lived spike or washout can flip the bracket outcome if price is hovering near a threshold.[8][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.