Bitcoin price on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES** today, which means the market currently sees a Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT close at 12:00 ET on 4 August as extremely unlikely on the YES side and effectively assigns all value to NO. Because the market settles on Binance’s **USDC/Polygon conditional-token** rails rather than a broader Bitcoin benchmark, traders need to anchor on that exact timestamp and venue, not a daily spot average or another exchange print.

That 0% reading is easier to read in context of recent BTC levels than as a standalone call. Available price snapshots across major data sites place Bitcoin in the low-to-mid **$60,000s** in early August 2026, with recent daily closes around $63,000 and intraday ranges that have stayed well below the six-figure forecasts some model pages still publish. In practical Polymarket terms, a market pinned at zero often reflects either a contract that is far out of the money versus the current spot range or a bracket structure where the relevant bin is not being assigned any meaningful probability.

The main catalysts are the usual short-horizon crypto drivers: the Binance candle itself, any sharp move in BTC spot during the U.S. morning, and scheduled macro or ETF-related headlines that can reprice Bitcoin within minutes. Traders watching this market should focus on whether spot volatility can carry through the noon ET window, because the settlement depends on the **final close** of that one-minute candle, not the broader day’s trend.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Bitcoin price on August 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.