Bitcoin above … on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market hinges on Bitcoin's spot price at precisely noon Eastern Time on 13 August 2026, measured via Binance's BTC/USDT pair at the close of the 1-minute candle. The 100% implied probability reflects either an exceptionally high strike price or substantial uncertainty about the exact settlement threshold—Polymarket's USDC-collateralised conditional tokens on Polygon settle based on Binance's published candle data, making the resolution mechanism straightforward once the timestamp arrives.

Bitcoin's intraday volatility at fixed timestamps has historically been modest relative to 24-hour swings. Over the past three years, noon ET closures have typically fallen within 2–4% of the daily open, though this varies significantly during periods of macroeconomic data releases or Federal Reserve announcements. The current 100% crowd probability suggests traders either expect Bitcoin substantially above the strike by that date, or the threshold is set conservatively enough that near-term price action poses minimal settlement risk. Comparable single-candle markets on Polymarket have resolved YES when underlying assets remained within established trading ranges, though flash crashes and exchange-specific liquidity events have occasionally created brief deviations.

Traders monitoring this contract should track scheduled economic data for 13 August 2026—particularly any US inflation or employment figures released that morning, which could drive volatile trading in the hours leading to noon ET. Bitcoin's correlation with equity futures and the US dollar index remains a key dependency; any significant moves in those markets during the morning session could influence the final candle close. Binance's operational status and any maintenance windows should also be verified closer to the settlement date, as technical disruptions could theoretically affect price discovery at the critical timestamp.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin above … on August 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.