Claude Mythos released by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic confirmed on 26 March 2026 that Claude Mythos, an unreleased model, had been exposed through a data breach. The company described the system as representing a significant capability jump in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity applications, with early access testing already underway. The market currently prices release at 0% on Polygon, meaning traders are pricing near-certain non-release by 30 April 2026—a compressed thirteen-month window from leak to settlement.

Historical precedent suggests caution with such extreme probabilities. OpenAI's GPT-4 was announced in March 2023 and released within weeks; Anthropic's own Claude 3 family launched publicly roughly two months after initial announcements. However, Anthropic has previously held models in extended testing phases—Claude 2 spent several months in limited beta before wider release. The company's pattern favours controlled rollouts rather than immediate public availability, which may explain the market's scepticism, though "release" here includes early access programmes already confirmed as active.

Traders should monitor Anthropic's official announcements and product roadmap disclosures, particularly any statements clarifying whether Mythos constitutes a distinct product line or a version increment to existing Claude models. The Fortune reporting from March 2026 remains the primary source; subsequent company communications about testing timelines, partnership deployments, or commercial availability dates would directly inform settlement interpretation. The 30 April deadline creates a hard cutoff that leaves minimal margin for delayed announcements or phased rollouts extending beyond that date.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.