Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing any departure from Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA) by 1 July 2026 at 100% YES, meaning traders are currently offering USDC at near-zero cost for conditional YES tokens on Polygon. The market hinges on a single, verifiable event: at least one aircraft must execute a takeoff—not merely push back from the gate—within the settlement window. FlightAware serves as the primary arbiter, with Iranian Civil Aviation Organisation data as secondary confirmation. At current odds, the market reflects near-certainty that IKA will remain operational and active through mid-2026.

IKA has operated continuously since its 2004 opening, serving as Iran's primary international hub despite regional tensions and sanctions. The airport weathered the January 2020 missile strikes that damaged runways, resuming flights within days. Even during peak sanctions periods and the 2022 protests, commercial operations persisted, albeit with reduced frequency. Historical precedent suggests that absent a major military escalation or sustained infrastructure destruction, IKA maintains minimum operational capacity. The 100% pricing reflects this track record rather than absolute certainty.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Iranian aviation authority announcements, regional geopolitical developments, and published airline schedules. Recent reporting from Reuters and local aviation sources indicates IKA continues scheduling both domestic and international services through 2026. Any credible threat of sustained closure—military action, sanctions escalation targeting aviation, or infrastructure damage—would shift market pricing. Until such catalysts materialise, the conditional token structure on Polygon reflects the baseline assumption that commercial aviation from Tehran will continue functioning.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.