Claude 5 released by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket currently prices Claude 5's public release before year-end 2025 at zero, with USDC liquidity thin and conditional tokens trading near worthless on Polygon. This reflects the market's assessment that Anthropic will not launch a product explicitly branded Claude 5 with general public access—including open beta or rolling waitlist—within the next eleven months. The settlement criteria are strict: closed beta, private access, or enterprise-only availability would all resolve this contract to No.

Anthropic's release cadence provides the primary historical frame. Claude 3 arrived in March 2024 across three capability tiers (Haiku, Sonnet, Opus), with public availability immediate. Claude 3.5 Sonnet followed in June 2024, also publicly released without extended gatekeeping. The company has shown willingness to ship major model revisions on roughly six-month intervals, though no explicit roadmap commits to a Claude 5 label or timeline. Competitors' naming conventions—OpenAI's GPT-4 to GPT-4o progression, Meta's Llama versioning—suggest major numbered releases remain infrequent, typically spanning 12–18 months between generations.

Traders should monitor Anthropic's official announcements, earnings calls from parent investors, and developer conference schedules through Q4 2025. The company has not publicly signalled a Claude 5 development programme or target launch window. Any credible statement from leadership regarding a numbered major release, capability roadmap, or public availability timeline would move this contract sharply. Current zero pricing reflects genuine uncertainty about whether Anthropic will even use the Claude 5 designation, rather than incremental versioning like Claude 3.6 or product-line differentiation.

Methodology

We track Claude 5 released by…? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.